Non-memory growth led next year ... Memory outlook is dark

IDC, Gartner, McKinsey, etc … Non-memory demand such as AI · 5G · automobile · edge

Mario Morales, vice president of IDC, is presenting at the podium./KIPOST

Memory makers are unlikely to see any signs of a better market situation in the second half of this year and at least late next year. It is non-memory to wake up the semiconductor market that shrunk in the coming year.

Memory demand till next year … Price dip

The market research institute officials gathered at the SMART Markets: SEMI Market Symposium held by the Semiconductor Equipment Association of the World (SEMI)

Mario Morales, vice president of IDC, said, “Memory prices, which had skyrocketed two years ago, even last year, have continued to decline this year.” Cloud vendors are depleting inventories while mobile demand for fifth generation (5G) It is taking time to come up and this trend will continue until next year. “

Even if memory makers reduce wafer input capacity, capacity and demand have been fixed. Demand has fallen short of demand due to a sharp drop in orders from cloud makers that have driven demand for the past two years. There is a limit to subtraction because it is necessary to control the amount of input from lines that do not interfere with production line operation.

IDC expected DRAM price trend./KIPOST

Jim Handy, an analyst at Object Analysts, said, “Although the market has been in a slump all over the past two years, we have invested too much in the past two years and the prices have skyrocketed. It is in the worst downturn. “

The industry is struggling to prevent further price declines, but it does not work. The price of 32GB DRAM, which was 192 dollars earlier this year, dropped to 139 dollars (about 164,000 won) in the second quarter. What the industry has set aside for the Maggion route was $ 150. IDC predicts 32GB DRAM prices will fall below $ 100 next year.

Memory / non-memory semiconductor market size and annual growth rate of the entire semiconductor market./IDC, KIPOST

“The price per bit will be 40% for DRAM and 50% for NAND this year, and double-digit decline by 2023,” Morales said. “The total memory market is only half of last year’s ($ 160.2 billion) (About 115.7 trillion won), “he said.

5G, AI, Edge, and car … The age of non-memory is back.

However, market experts predict that the entire semiconductor market will grow again next year. Thanks to non-memory semiconductors.

The non-memory market has developed dramatically with every IT product. PCs and smart phones are typical. Demand for new wireless communication standards such as 5G mobile communication and Wi-Fi 6 and AI and edge computing will start to become visible from next year.

The standard that includes millimeter wave (mmWAVE) frequency band technology, the core of 5G NR (3GPP Rel. 16), will be completed at year’s end. This is why market experts explain that the 5G market is not ripe yet.

When millimeter-wave communication becomes possible, 5G is used not only in smart phones but also in various industries such as automobiles, virtual reality (VR) devices, drones and smart factories.

Martin Reynolds, Vice President and Fellow, Gartner, said, “We are also investing in infrastructure such as Mobile Base station to support 5G everywhere.” “By applying 5G to digital business and infrastructure, Many companies want to export, “he said.

Mark Patel McKinsey’s senior partner is presenting the AI semiconductor market trend../KIPOST

AI is just the beginning. Although 60% of digital and data-based companies have invested in AI, investment by each industry segment is still small, except for large data center companies.

Mark Patel, senior partner at McKinsey & Company, said, “The growth rate of the AI ​​semiconductor market in 2025 will be more than five times the growth rate of the non-AI market, not the AI. The AI ​​semiconductor market is growing. “

In the long term, it is the automobile that is considered as the finished product of the next mobile. Automotive electronics and the proliferation of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are increasing the amount of semiconductors in automobiles. This trend will continue for a while as European green regulations become more stringent.

“The automotive industry ecosystem is twice as much as the mobile ecosystem, and automotive semiconductors are growing at an average annual rate of 75%,” said Morrelas. “With the infrastructure, power efficiency, and other limitations of eco- Will be expanded rapidly. “